| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | UT Martin | 27-7 | 1641.5 | -24.5 | 1617.0 | 96.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Oregon | 3-69 | 1617.0 | -162.7 | 1454.3 | 9.2% |
| 5 | Sep 19 2025 | L | Tulsa | 12-19 | 1460.1 | -57.7 | 1402.4 | 65.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Baylor | 27-45 | 1402.4 | +1.6 | 1404.0 | 10.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Arizona | 13-41 | 1404.0 | -20.6 | 1383.4 | 12.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Houston | 17-39 | 1383.4 | -16.6 | 1366.8 | 13.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 17-49 | 1366.8 | -8.4 | 1358.4 | 6.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 0-42 | 1358.4 | -5.2 | 1353.2 | 2.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Kansas | 21-38 | 1353.2 | +20.2 | 1373.4 | 8.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Kansas State | 6-14 | 1378.3 | +27.6 | 1405.9 | 7.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | UCF | 14-17 | 1405.9 | +25.3 | 1431.2 | 16.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Iowa State | 13-20 | 1431.2 | +24.5 | 1455.7 | 8.0% |