| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Tulsa | 10-24 | 1654.0 | -128.2 | 1525.8 | 80.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Oregon | 39-31 | 1525.8 | +55.3 | 1581.1 | 3.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Murray State | 59-0 | 1581.1 | +71.1 | 1652.2 | 94.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | West Virginia | 41-24 | 1652.2 | +19.5 | 1671.7 | 44.6% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | UCF | 42-28 | 1669.9 | +27.4 | 1697.3 | 40.5% |